The Morning After

After 18 days of protests Egypt's President Hosni Mubarak finally resigned. And most network news carried stories of jubilant Egyptians rejoicing over the change. But the real question now is this: What has really changed? When everyone wakes up tomorrow morning, what will be different?

The economy has worsened. In 2008 12% of the Egypt's workforce was employed in tourism. That year 12.8 million tourists visited the country and spent $11 billion. Because of the recent unrest thousands of tour groups have already canceled trips. And groups currently planning tours for next year are not considering Egypt as a destination. Tourism will eventually bounce back, but for the next year or two those dependent on tourism will be hurt by the decline. And its impact will ripple throughout the economy.

The army is still in control. What happened today was a military coup. The army forced Mubarak from office and disbanded the government. While they have promised free and fair elections, no specific date has been set. The face at the top may have changed, but control of the government still rests with the military, as it did when Mubarak was President.

The influence of the United States in the Middle East has declined. Reports have already surfaced that Saudi Arabia is furious with the United States for having abandoned our long-time ally. The United States turned its back on Mubarak, and official statements from Washington left little doubt we wanted him out. The unintended consequence is that we also sent a message to other allies that we might do the same thing to them. Countries like Saudi Arabia and Jordan have taken risks by aligning themselves with the United States. I suspect both will begin exploring other options to meet their long-term security needs.

So what happens next? Frankly, nobody knows for sure. Iran, the Muslim Brotherhood, and other Islamic fundamentalist groups want elections as soon as possible. They have an opportunity to gain power and influence in Egypt, and they want to seize that opportunity as quickly as possible. The army wants to maintain the status quo. Some things will be different, but the army would like to remain the stabilizing force controlling the government. This might very well happen...unless the United States pushes them to move quickly toward elections. And as for those who pushed for change? They will eventually discover that the overthrow of Mubarak will not magically create jobs...or put food on the table...or bring about personal freedom. When this happens, disappointment and anger may replace the euphoria we are seeing now.

The media will eventually shift their focus from events in Egypt, but the story isn't over.

Important Message from Egypt

Yesterday I received an e-mail from a dear friend which, in turn, contained a forwarded e-mail from an Egyptian believer. I was so awed by the e-mail that I asked my friend if it would be alright to post it for other believers. After checking with the original author, I was given that permission.

Please read through the following e-mail, and make it a matter of prayer. Then send a link to this post to all your friends. We need to get as many people as possible here in the U.S. to join in praying for our brothers and sisters in Egypt!

********

The church in Egypt is fasting and praying (in homes, because all church buildings are closed), believing God for a breakthrough for the nation.

Here are some key points for prayer:

• The future of the country, and the entire Middle East, is in the balance right now. Many are rightfully concerned that, taking advantage of the chaos, violence and looming power vacuum, the Muslim Brotherhood will try to step in as the key player in determining the fate of the nation. If that takes place, the consequences will be grave for Egypt and her neighbors. The church is praying that the Lord spare us this fate, and interceding for some form of stable government to emerge and lead us gradually to freedom and democracy. Let’s be in agreement for this miracle.
• Thugs have taken to the streets, beating and abusing the demonstrators. They have also started many fires to damage property (public buildings, police stations, even—unsuccessfully—our national treasures at the Egyptian Museum). Please pray that the demonic forces behind these people will be thwarted and that their schemes will be aborted. Pray for every hidden plot to come to light (there are lots of conspiracy theories swirling already, and much confusion as a result). Pray that the hand of the enemy, forcing its way in to literally steal, kill and destroy will be exposed and arrested, and that the nation will be protected.
• Please pray for the safety and protection of the people. Police forces disappeared last Friday night which lead to a lot of sabotage, looting, armed robbery, etc. People have had to band together to protect their families and homes with kitchen knives, sticks, tire irons, etc. It has been an amazing show of unity and love, bringing together folks from all walks of life, and from different faiths. Pray against the spirit of fear.
• Finally, please pray that the prophetic destiny of Egypt will advance in the face of all this turmoil. Plead the blood of Jesus over this land. Pray that what the enemy has meant for harm, the Lord will turn to good and use for the fulfillment of His divine plans and purposes for the nation.

Update on Egypt

Events continue to remain in flux in Egypt. It appears that the United States is pushing hard for Mubarak to step aside as President. I personally struggle with our policy because it appears as if the U.S. is meddling in the internal affairs of a sovereign nation. (Would we want China meddling in our internal affairs...and appearing to dictate terms to our leaders?)

A second wrinkle today is that pro-Mubarak demonstrations have popped up in Egypt. While some have challenged the motives of these protesters, it appears that some are genuinely concerned about the impact the anti-Mubarak protests are having on the economy. The flight of tourists is now hurting a segment of the population that had been doing relatively well financially under Mubarak's leadership. As the economy declines, will those being affected blame Mubarak...or those seeking to topple him?

A third issue today is Israel's public stance on the future of Egypt. Israel has declared that if democracy prevails in Egypt, it will not pose a threat to Israel. This statement appears to me to be an attempt at reverse psychology. That is, one reason Mubarak is disliked is because of Egypt's peace treaty with Israel (even though it was negotiated by his successor). By appearing to "endorse" and embrace any democratically-elected successor, it appears Israel is trying to provide Mubarak with some breathing room while at the same time diminishing the attractiveness of a successor by implying the change will not bring about a change in the peace treaty between the two countries. This might not be the case, but it's hard to believe Netanyahu actually thinks the next government--if it includes the Muslim Brotherhood--will be good for Israel.

Stratfor issued an interesting video dispatch on Netanyahu's comments. The dispatch is definitely worth watching. I think it's an excellent evaluation of his comments and of the overall situation!

Freedom...or Firestorm?

Will the current events unfolding in Egypt lead to democracy...or to even greater repression? Right now it's hard to tell, but I'm concerned about the participation of the Muslim Brotherhood in the uprising. One real danger is that the current situation could by hijacked by this group and used to promote their vision of establishing a fundamentalist Islamic state.

While those in the West compare the current events in the Middle East to the fall of the Iron Curtain, I see parallels to the fall of the Shah of Iran and his replacement by an Islamic republic. The revolution in Iran brought repression, not democracy, and it produced a country that has become one of the leading exporters of terrorism worldwide.

Pray for our government leaders and ask God to help them make wise decisions in how they respond the situation. And pray for the believers (national and foreign) in Egypt and in the other troubled areas. Ask God to keep them safe, and ask Him to help them be effective witnesses for Him in a very dark and chaotic time.

The Situation in Egypt

Two weeks ago on The Land and the Book we discussed the riots in Tunisia and the impact it could have on the rest of the Middle East. We said several other countries were vulnerable to similar protests, and Egypt was near the top of the list. The events of the past few days show how fragile Mubarak's control over Egypt really is.

Events in Egypt are front-age news, but most of that news seems to be anecdotal. The videos of rioters, police, burning cars, and swirling clouds of teargas make for compelling viewing, but they don't really help us understand whether the government is going to survive or fall. Outside of high-level government agencies, such hard analysis is difficult to obtain.

And that's why I have come to appreciate the work of Stratfor Global Intelligence. They provide as helpful an analysis of these type of situation one can find. While most of their research is only available to subscribers, they do sometimes make their work available to the general public. And they have done this in their most recent Red Alert on the situation in Egypt.

The report is short, time critical...and worth reading!