Two weeks ago on The Land and the Book we discussed the riots in Tunisia and the impact it could have on the rest of the Middle East. We said several other countries were vulnerable to similar protests, and Egypt was near the top of the list. The events of the past few days show how fragile Mubarak's control over Egypt really is.
Events in Egypt are front-age news, but most of that news seems to be anecdotal. The videos of rioters, police, burning cars, and swirling clouds of teargas make for compelling viewing, but they don't really help us understand whether the government is going to survive or fall. Outside of high-level government agencies, such hard analysis is difficult to obtain.
And that's why I have come to appreciate the work of Stratfor Global Intelligence. They provide as helpful an analysis of these type of situation one can find. While most of their research is only available to subscribers, they do sometimes make their work available to the general public. And they have done this in their most recent Red Alert on the situation in Egypt.
The report is short, time critical...and worth reading!